What Led to the Drop in PAP's Vote Share in Singapore's 2020 Elections?
Understanding the recent changes in the People's Action Party's (PAP) vote share in Singapore's elections is crucial for anyone interested in the political climate of the nation.
The LKY Effect and Historical Data
Most answers and analyses on this topic often highlight the significant impact of Lee Kuan Yew (LKY) in the 2015 elections. However, a closer look at the data reveals that the 2011 election results painted a slightly different picture. In 2011, PAP received a popular vote share of 60.14%, which, although a bit lower than 2020's 61.24%, indicates that they still performed relatively well. This performance was particularly noteworthy considering the dissatisfaction among the populace during that period due to issues with the transport system and insufficient housing.
Critical Factors Impacting PAP's Results
Covid-19 and Lockdown Impact
One of the most significant challenges PAP faced was the onset of the global pandemic, particularly the impact of the stringent measures taken. It is generally acknowledged that they have done their utmost during the pandemic. However, the complex nature of the issue and the difficulties in disseminating clear information to the public made it harder to maintain support. The increased community spread of the virus and long queues during the election may have made the opposition's messaging resonate more with the electorate.
Mask Wearing Controversy
The issue of mask wearing also played a significant role in the PAP's performance. In the early stages of the pandemic, PAP followed the World Health Organization's (WHO) advice that masks were not necessary, unless one was sick. While this advice was widely accepted initially, the situation changed when mask supplies became limited, and the virus began to spread more rapidly. Had PAP taken a slightly different approach early on, for instance, by suggesting that wearing masks would be safer despite the limited supply, the outcome might have been different.
The Young Voter Demographic and Digital Media Influence
Another critical factor was the performance of young voters, as evidenced in the Seng Kang Group Representative Constituency (GRC). Their voting behavior was largely influenced by social media and the desire for transparency and diverse viewpoints. The messages and comments posted online focused predominantly on fairness, diversity, and accountability.
The Tan Cheng Bock Effect and Voting Behavior
The West Coast GRC is historically a strong PAP stronghold, and its reduced performance influenced the overall results. The LKY effect was significant in 2015, but it is important to note that PAP's vote share has dropped consecutively in each election before increasing again. This trend is not uncommon and, hence, the drop itself isn't particularly surprising.
Strategic Analysis and Future Implications
In my opinion, strategically, PAP made one significant misstep by following the WHO's early guidance on mask wearing without taking additional preventive measures. This decision, while aligned with global medical consensus, may have unintentionally eroded their political capital. Had they communicated a more proactive stance early on, focusing on safety and precaution, the electorate might have responded differently.
Despite this, it's important to note that the Worker's Party (WP) has shown significant improvement and is more in line with PAP than other opposition parties. This positioning helps long-term PAP supporters who seek change without drastic shifts. Additionally, WP's better communication on digital platforms and media contrasts with PAP's relative weakness in these areas, contributing to the perceived shift in public sentiment.
In conclusion, the drop in PAP's vote share can be attributed to a combination of factors including the pandemic, mask wearing controversy, and strategic missteps. As Singapore continues to navigate its political landscape, these factors will undoubtedly influence future election outcomes.