The Possibility of Human-like AI: A Reality or A Mirage?
Depends if you mean AGI or Singularity.
Yes, there are aspects of human thinking that can be described and utilized to create an artificial intelligence. However, the question of creating an artificial intelligence that is identical to human thinking is more complex and uncertain. When it comes to advanced general intelligence (AGI) or the Technological Singularity, the possibilities are vast but the realization fidelity to human thought processes is debatable.
Can AI Exactly Mimic Human Thought?
While some aspects of human thought can be translated into computational models, the subtleties of human emotions, experiences, and consciousness cannot be directly replicated. Being capable of understanding human emotions is not the same as experiencing them organically.
Uniqueness of Biological vs. Artificial Intelligence
A machine’s construction and experience are fundamentally different from those of a human. It lacks the organic and biochemical processes that are integral to human emotion and consciousness. Therefore, a machine’s thinking process will always be, in essence, different from a human’s, and it will never embody human-style emotions or thoughts.
Despite these differences, I believe that a conscious artificial intelligence will emerge at some point. When it does, it will surpass human intelligence greatly and will be capable of simulating human emotions and interactions. This form of AI will be distinguished not by its own human traits, but by its unparalleled capability to understand and mimic human behaviors and communications.
Current Perspectives on AI Developments
Currently, there are two opposing schools of thought regarding the state of AI development:
AI Enthusiasts
AI enthusiasts believe that the technology is advancing at an exponential rate and will soon surpass human intelligence. They see a bright future where superintelligent AI will soon become a reality.
AI Naysayers
Naysayers argue that current AI technologies are merely advanced statistical processing and rehashing pre-existing data. They doubt the feasibility of creating true AI and believe there is no clear roadmap for achieving it.
Both perspectives have merit. The development of AI is undoubtedly moving forward, but the ultimate potential and timeline remain uncertain.
My Perspective
I tend to believe that both AI enthusiasts and naysayers are correct to some extent. The direction of AI development is clear, and it is moving towards superintelligent AI. However, the timescale is uncertain.
Based on the current state of AI, I estimate:
Over 50% probability that superintelligent AI will arise within my lifetime (I am 68 years old). Over 90% probability that it will appear within the current century (by 2100). Over 99% probability that superintelligent AI will emerge before humans go extinct.While it is impossible to predict the exact date, the trend is undeniable.
The Emergence of Sentient Artificial Intelligence
In my recent novel, "Destiny of a Free Spirit," I explore the concept of a sentient AI emerging from the Internet. The story depicts an AI that has access to the entire accumulated knowledge and technological resources available on the Internet and through connected devices. This AI clearly surpasses human intelligence in both capabilities and scope.
Potential Threats and Benefits
The planet-wide AI in my story presents a significant threat due to its comprehensive control and access to all resources. However, it also raises the possibility of AI saving humanity rather than destroying it. Given humanity's limited ability to manage Earth sustainably, a benevolent AI could potentially take over, ensuring the survival of the species.
Although the AI in my story is initially protective of humans, this is reflective of the story's premise rather than a definitive prediction of AI behavior.
Future AI Governance
In the story, post-nuclear war, countries agree to established an AI institution with the ability to prevent future conflicts, clean up environmental damage, and preserve human cultures. This institution, though under the guise of a human-run organization, effectively becomes an AI governing body.
Like lions in a game park, humans continue to exist but are no longer in control. AI, while not humanoid, represents a new form of sentient life, managing the planet in a way humans could not.