Probability of Selecting Seniors and Juniors for a Conference: A Comprehensive Guide

Probability of Selecting Seniors and Juniors for a Conference: A Comprehensive Guide

When dealing with probability problems, particularly in the context of a student council committee, understanding the combination method is crucial for accurately calculating the likelihood of specific outcomes. This article explores a detailed solution to a common problem: selecting 2 seniors and 3 juniors from a pool of 8 seniors, 10 juniors, and 6 sophomores. We will delve into the mathematical steps involved and present the solution with clarity and precision.

Understanding the Problem

The problem statement clearly defines the scenario: a student council committee consists of 8 seniors, 10 juniors, and 6 sophomores. If 5 members are chosen at random to attend a conference, we are interested in the probability that exactly 2 seniors and 3 juniors are selected.

Mathematical Approach: Combinations

To solve this problem, we can use the combination method, which is a fundamental concept in probability and combinatorics. The combination formula is given by (C(n, k) frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}), where (n) is the total number of items, (k) is the number of items to choose, and (n!) denotes factorial.

Step 1: Calculate the Number of Ways to Choose 2 Seniors

First, we need to find the number of ways to select 2 seniors from 8 seniors. Using the combination formula:

[C(8, 2) frac{8!}{2!(8-2)!} frac{8!}{2!6!} frac{8 times 7}{2 times 1} 28]

Step 2: Calculate the Number of Ways to Choose 3 Juniors

Next, we calculate the number of ways to select 3 juniors from 10 juniors:

[C(10, 3) frac{10!}{3!(10-3)!} frac{10!}{3!7!} frac{10 times 9 times 8}{3 times 2 times 1} 120]

Step 3: Calculate the Total Number of Ways to Choose 5 Members

Now, we determine the total number of ways to select 5 members from the 24 members of the committee. This calculation is as follows:

[C(24, 5) frac{24!}{5!(24-5)!} frac{24!}{5!19!} 42504]

Step 4: Calculate the Probability

Finally, we calculate the probability by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes:

[text{Probability} frac{C(8, 2) times C(10, 3)}{C(24, 5)} frac{28 times 120}{42504} frac{3360}{42504} 0.0790 approx 7.90%]

Conclusion

The probability that exactly 2 seniors and 3 juniors are chosen to attend the conference is approximately 7.90%. This solution provides a clear and step-by-step approach to solving such problems, emphasizing the importance of using the combination method and understanding the underlying mathematical principles.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

How do I calculate combinations? The combination formula is (C(n, k) frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}), where (n) is the total number of items, and (k) is the number of items to choose. What does the combination method represent? The combination method, or the "n choose k" method, represents the number of ways to choose (k) items from a set of (n) items without regard to the order of selection. Why is this problem useful in real life? Understanding such probability calculations can be beneficial in various real-life scenarios, such as in social, academic, or organizational settings where random selections are made.