What Would Happen to Putin When the War in Ukraine is Over?
Ensuing the conclusion of the Ukraine war, several potential scenarios exist for Putin. This article explores the various possible futures for the Russian leader, considering both victory and defeat, as well as the consequences should he die or be overthrown.
Implications of Victory for Putin
If the war concludes with a Russian victory resembling the described scenario, Putin will be faced with significant challenges. Since the war's resolution won't mean his defeat but rather a period of sustained autocratic rule, he will need to take several immediate actions to stabilize and secure his regime.
To prevent economic collapse, Putin will have to implement policies to ensure rapid economic recovery and resilience. This implies a series of measures, including but not limited to, stabilizing the currency, boosting agricultural production, promoting industrial sectors, and attracting foreign investment.
Paying homage to the returning veterans is crucial for maintaining social harmony and preventing revolution. Ensuring their well-being and providing them with necessary resources is essential. Furthermore, Putin must work on ensuring that political opponents are silenced or neutralized to uphold the existing order.
Militarily, the occupied territories must be pacified and reconstructed. This will require a significant investment in infrastructure, housing, and public services. The effort will also involve re-establishing law and order and addressing the needs of the civilian population.
Consequences of Defeat
The consequences of a Russian defeat in the Ukraine war could be far more severe. If this scenario unfolds, the future for Putin may be grim. It is likely that he would lose his post, reputation, and any potential benefits.
He possesses a plethora of nuclear warheads, making an outright defeat improbable. Nonetheless, the political fallout and international condemnation could compel him to attempt a catastrophic response. Alternative scenarios include suicide, similar to the cases of other authoritarian leaders; poisoning, either through sophisticated Russian teas or other methods; or a orchestrated plane crash. In any of these scenarios, Putin's regime would likely collapse, leading to a power vacuum and potentially civil unrest in Russia.
Scenario Planning and Predictions
Should the war end in a definitive Ukrainian victory, the outlined steps for Putin would become even more critical. He would need to adapt rapidly and comprehensively to prevent chaos and ensure his survival. However, if history is any indicator, it is unlikely that Putin would succumb to a clean defeat. Instead, he might withdraw from Ukraine with significant concessions, leading to further geopolitical maneuvering and potential future military operations.
Those who believe Putin might move against other NATO countries are either victims of paranoid propaganda or perpetrators of it themselves. Such actions would be strategically unwise and invite severe international backlash.
For Putin, the most likely outcome is a protracted and challenging period of governance with increasing pressure from within and external fronts. His ultimate fate may hinge on his ability to navigate these complex and dangerous circumstances. If he persists in his current path, one can only speculate on how long he will stay in power before Russia is finally halted by external forces or internal resistance.
Regardless of the war's outcome, Putin's future remains uncertain and fraught with peril. The world watches closely to see how this pivotal figure in international politics will navigate the post-war landscape.