Understanding the US Presidential Election Process
The United States presidential election system is a complex blend of both the popular vote and the Electoral College. Each state has a specific number of electoral votes based on its representation in Congress. The candidate who secures a majority of electoral votes (270 out of 538) wins the presidency, irrespective of their performance in the popular vote.
On the other hand, the popular vote, which is the sum of votes cast by citizens in separate states, is significant in its own right as it forms the basis for a democratic representation of the electorate's will. However, it does not determine the presidential winner directly.
How the Electoral College System Works
The Electoral College is a group of electors chosen in each state who cast votes for president and vice president. Each state’s number of electors is determined by the total number of representatives (both senators and representatives) in the state’s Congressional delegation. According to Regulation of Electoral Votes (2 U.S.C. §8), each state gets three electors plus one additional elector for each member of their House of Representatives.
While most states have a winner-take-all system, where the candidate with the most votes receives all the electoral votes, two states (Maine and Nebraska) use a proportional system.
The National Popular Vote Compact
A number of states, including thirteen states and the District of Columbia, representing 196 electoral votes, have joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVC). This agreement aims to ensure that the winner of the national popular vote also wins the presidency by ensuring that each state’s electoral votes are cast for the candidate who wins the national popular vote. However, this pact only takes effect if states representing 270 electoral votes agree to join the compact, a threshold that has not yet been met.
As of the 2020 election, the NPVC has not reached the 270 electoral vote threshold and thus, does not have the effect of impacting the outcome of the 2020 election or any future elections.
According to the NPVC’s current members, achieving the 270 electoral vote threshold is unlikely to be achieved before the next presidential election in 2024.
A Critical Analysis of Trump’s Victory Chances
While some individuals may claim that Trump will win in a landslide based on the popular vote, a closer look at the data shows that it is improbable. President Donald Trump won the 2016 election with 306 electoral votes and 46.1% of the popular vote. In 2020, assuming only a narrow popular vote victory, Trump would need a considerable margin to achieve a landslide victory.
In 2016, Trump won 375 electoral votes, whereas a landslide victory would require 311-332 electoral votes (at least 69 more than his 2016 victory). However, if we exclude states where Trump has no chance of victory, the number of electoral votes available is drastically reduced to just 50, making it impossible for Trump to achieve a landslide victory.
It is important to note that winning 50 electoral votes is still a significant win but does not constitute a landslide. Additionally, winning 50 electoral votes would provide Biden with more electoral votes than Trump in 2020, showcasing the true democratic nature of the system.
The Debate Over Popular Vote Winner
Even if Trump were to win the popular vote, it would likely lead to speculation about the validity of the election results. Some may argue that a popular vote winner should also be the electoral vote winner, similar to the NPVC’s goals. However, the current electoral system allows for a candidate to win the presidency without winning the national popular vote.
A popular vote victory for Biden would likely result in a counter-argument that he received more votes and thus, should be the winner. Some might even suggest that foreign interference (like alleged Russian influence) may have skewed the results in Trump’s favor, but this theory is debatable and lacks concrete evidence.
Conclusion
The current United States presidential electoral system is a testament to a balance between democracy and federalism, where the popular vote contributes to a broader democratic principle while the Electoral College ensures representative delegation. The inclusion of the National Popular Vote Compact in several states is a step towards a more democratic outcome but has not yet reached a critical mass to impact the 2020 or future elections.
The 2020 election results highlight the challenges and complexities of the electoral process, but the current system remains robust and resilient to changing political climates and voter preferences.