Understanding the Factors Behind Trump's Potential Victory in New Hampshire in 2020
Introduction
During the 2020 U.S. presidential election, President Donald Trump managed to come within striking distance of several key states, including New Hampshire (NH), Nevada (NV), and Minnesota (MN). Analyzing these results requires a deeper dive into the libertarian factor and voter turnout adjustments. This article explores how these factors could have contributed to Trump's near-victory in New Hampshire and his overall electoral strategy in 2020.
The Libertarian Factor in Play
The libertarian factor, which refers to the influence of libertarian candidates such as Gary Johnson in past elections, played a significant role in determining the outcome of several states. Johnson, who ran as the libertarian candidate in 2016, garnered enough votes to potentially tip the scales in favor of either candidate in states like NV, MN, and NH. However, in incumbent Republican elections, the libertarian factor is typically smaller, as observed in previous elections.
When examining President Trump's 2020 performance against the 2016 results, the libertarian factor takes on a different dimension. Trump faced uncertainty from some voters regarding his ability to fulfill campaign promises. Notably, these voters saw Trump as an improvement over the fear that he might represent. The libertarian model, specifically adjusted for the libertarian vote share in states like NH, NV, and MN, suggests that Trump might have received up to two-thirds of the libertarian votes.
Adjustments for Voter Increase
The voter increase across political lines is another crucial factor to consider. The model used for the 2020 election adjusts for a 10% increase in new Democratic voters over Republican voters, as well as a factor for overall voter increase per party. This adjustment helps ensure that the model can account for the margin of error in the election results.
Based on this analysis, Trump is projected to improve his 2016 deficit significantly in these states, potentially tipping the scales in his favor. In the case of New Hampshire, the libertarian factor and adjustment for increased voter turnout play a critical role in the outcome. Given these factors, Trump is likely to add NH to his victory list in 2020, similar to NV and MN.
Key Takeaways and Future Projections
The analysis of the libertarian factor and voter turnout increases leads to some compelling projections for the 2020 election. Notably, while states like Michigan (MI), Arizona (AZ), and Pennsylvania (PA) may shift against Trump, he could still win the election if he secures victories in Wisconsin (WI), Florida (FL), and Arizona (AZ).
Az will be particularly challenging, but the gains from NV, MN, and NH could offset any losses in AZ. Trump's strategy hinges on winning the three most critical states: Florida, Wisconsin, and Arizona. In Arizona, the intrastate Senate race adds an unpredictable element, but with the libertarian model, the odds favor Trump's performance.
Despite the challenges, Trump's support appears to be growing. Polling data suggests that Trump's favorability ratings are actually increasing, with a spike in the latter stages of his first term. This trend indicates that voters, particularly those who base their decisions on poll data, may be in for a surprise in 2020. The analysis presented here closely aligns with internal polling data, suggesting that Trump is poised for a significant electoral increase in 2020.
Conclusion
President Trump's potential victory in states like New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota in 2020 is rooted in a combination of the libertarian factor and increased voter turnout adjustments. These factors, analyzed within the context of past election data, suggest a favorable environment for Trump to improve his electoral record. As the election approaches, Trump's strategy and public support are likely to play critical roles in determining the final outcome.
Keywords: President Trump, New Hampshire, 2020 Election, Libertarian Factor