Has Putin Stopped the War in Ukraine: A Reality Check

For some time, the discourse around the conflict in Ukraine has been dominated by the question of when or if Vladimir Putin will stop the war. As the war grinds on, the stakes and the casualties on both sides mount. This article aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the situation, examining the current state of the conflict and the prospects for a ceasefire.

The State of War

Technically, the conflict continues. However, the nature of Russia’s involvement has shifted drastically from its initial stages. By late May, Russia had exhausted its pool of experienced and able soldiers. While both sides have suffered significant losses, with approximately 100,000 troops reported dead or lost, the disparity in losses is stark. According to estimates, per capita, Ukrainians suffered a far heavier cost, facing Russia’s best units and emerging victorious.

The inflicted defeat on Russian forces is significant; units often do not recover quickly from such setbacks. Russia has lost an estimated 8,000 pieces of equipment, including armored vehicles, missile systems, artillery, aircraft, and ships, with about a third of them captured. In contrast, Ukraine has managed to acquire over 2,500 major items of weaponry, including tanks, and now has more tanks than it began the war with. Western countries like the United States and Europe have supplied Ukraine with modern and sophisticated weapons, giving it a significant advantage over Russian forces, who predominantly use Soviet-era equipment.

The Human Cost

The human toll of the war is both staggering and devastating. While the exact figures are hard to ascertain, it is clear that countless civilians have suffered from attacks on civilian infrastructure and casualties in cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, and Kharkiv. These attacks are not strikes against legitimate military targets but rather terror attacks aimed at demoralizing the Ukrainian population.

Putin’s Miscalculations and Reserves

When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, he failed to account for the global outrage and the unified stance of Western countries against his actions. He responded to this by calling up 300,000 reservists and sending approximately half a million civilians across the border to avoid the draft. This move is a temporary measure to bridge the gap until proper training and equipment can be provided.

While Ukraine is pressing its advantages before the new Russian soldiers are properly equipped and trained, winter conditions will significantly hinder further advances. This does not mark the end of the conflict, but it does indicate that the pace of military operations will slow.

The Endgame

Theoretically, Russia will have to stop the war when it has depleted its supply of cruise missiles, Soviet-era ground-to-ground rockets, and Iranian drones. At that point, it will have no more means to inflict damage on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, rendering its ability to continue committing war crimes unsustainable.

Another factor that could accelerate the end of the conflict is the health of Vladimir Putin himself. If he is deemed medically unfit to serve as President or if he faces legal consequences for his actions, he could be removed from power or forcibly sent to a sanatorium, effectively ending his role as a war-monger.

Given the current dynamics, it seems clear that Putin’s days of being a war-monger are coming to a close. The international community, particularly NATO and the European Union, have been critical in supporting Ukraine. Without this support, the conflict would likely be over much sooner, but the Ukrainian military’s performance has been far better than expected, improving significantly since 2014 and challenging Russian forces in a way not seen previously.

For now, the war remains ongoing, but the conditions for a meaningful ceasefire are likely to change as Russia exhausts its resources and faces potential legal repercussions.