EU Migrants in the UK Post-EU Freedom of Movement: Navigating the Coming Changes

With the UK's exit from the European Union, the landscape for EU nationals living and working in the UK has undergone significant changes. As of June 2023, the EU withdrawal means that these individuals now require a work visa if they do not possess settled or pre-settled status. The most common route, the Skilled Worker visa, presents a new set of challenges and opportunities.

Understanding the New Work Visa Landscape

After the official Brexit transition period, EU nationals seeking to work in the UK have faced stringent new requirements. The most popular route for new arrivals is the Skilled Worker visa, which has specific eligibility criteria and restrictions:

A maximum stay of six months per year is permitted for most applicants All applicants must ensure their passport is up to date

However, the transitional period for the Skilled Worker visa is complicated and requires careful attention to detail from both migrants and employers.

Three Brexit Options for Britain: Soft, Softer, or Softest

The nature of the UK's future relationship with the EU remains uncertain, with indigenous political movements still entertaining various scenarios for the future. While some prominent figures, like former Prime Minister Theresa May, advocate for a 'hard Brexit,' the current political climate suggests a 'softer' approach may prevail. This softer Brexit is likely to involve an arrangement that maintains some level of access to the single market.

Soft Brexit: The UK's Proposed Approach

SLAThe UK government's White Paper on Brexit suggests a softer approach, which could include maintaining some level of free movement, particularly for workers. However, any such agreement would require the consent of the other 27 European Union member states, and even small regions within these states could veto such proposals.

Recent negotiations between Labour and the Prime Minister's party in the Conservative government indicate a willingness to find a compromise. Despite these positive signs, May's weak position in the Conservative Party poses a risk. Several dissenting voices among Tory MPs could sway the decision, leading to potential concessions.

Milder Brexit: Implications for EU Migrants

A milder Brexit could provide some advantages for EU migrants in the UK. Here are the key implications:

Joining the EU Customs Union

One of the most beneficial changes could be joining the EU customs union, which would allow for simpler travel and potentially relaxed rules for EU citizens. This is one of the four key aspects of the single market, alongside the free movement of goods, services, and capital.

Economic Cooperation and Administrative Collaboration

While a customs union would address some trade-related issues, a full soft Brexit would likely still involve significant international alliances to secure trade deals. These deals would extend beyond mere tariffs and goods, often including administrative collaboration and rule-making.

Why a Milder Brexit Offers the Least Obvious Benefits

Despite the allure of a milder Brexit, several factors make it less likely to be fully realized. The current political climate within the UK and the EU remains highly contentious. Any agreement on softer terms would need unanimous support from the EU member states, including smaller regions and countries.

The Three Least Likely Brexits

Soft Brexit: Remaining in the Single Market

According to the Labour Party and some Conservatives, a soft Brexit would involve remaining in the single market to some extent, especially to protect workers' rights. However, this approach would require significant compromises, particularly in light of the UK's commitment to renationalization of utilities and rail systems, which are currently regulated by EU rules.

Softer Brexit: Picking and Choosing EU Rules

Some argue that a softer Brexit would involve 'picking and choosing' which EU rules to keep, while others to discard. This approach is complex and would be challenging to negotiate with the EU, which may view such selective adoption as undermining the integrity of the single market.

Softest Brexit: Remaining in the European Economic Area (EEA) or European Free Trade Association (EFTA)

A softest Brexit would involve remaining in the EEA or EFTA as a condition of entering the single market. This option would provide some level of access but would still require adherence to many EU rules and regulations.

Ultimately, the least likely scenario may be maintaining the status quo, as many analysts believe that avoiding Brexit altogether would be the best long-term solution, given the economic and political instability it brings.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the future for EU migrants in the UK is complex and uncertain. The preference for a softer Brexit suggests that some level of integration may still be possible, but it will require significant political negotiations and compromises. As the negotiations continue, EU migrants will need to stay informed and prepared for the changes that lie ahead.