Boris Johnson's Future After Brexit: Voluntary Resignation or Tenure?

Boris Johnson's tenure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is a topic of considerable speculation and scrutiny. With the Brexit deadline of January 31, 2020, many wonder if this landmark event will mark the end of Johnson's political career. However, there are several possible scenarios following this pivotal moment in UK history. This article delves into the likely fate of Boris Johnson, considering the three primary outcomes that could unfold: a party leadership challenge, voluntary resignation, or losing a general election.

The Potential Paths for Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson's prime ministerial career might come to an end in one of three ways:

Party Leadership Challenge: Johnson could face a successful leadership challenge, reminiscent of Margaret Thatcher's experience in 1990. Her fellow Conservative ministers advised her she would not win another round of party voting, yet she ultimately succeeded. However, this path is not without its challenges, given the current political landscape. Voluntary Resignation: Johnson could choose to step down as his predecessors David Cameron and Theresa May did. Cameron stepped down after losing the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership in the EU, while May resigned following her failure to achieve a Brexit deal. Losing a General Election: Another possibility is Johnson could lose the next general election and be forced to resign, as John Major did in 1997 after losing the 1997 election to Tony Blair.

Expert Predictions and Opinions

The predictions and opinions of experts and observers like Robert MacGregor provide valuable insights into the likely outcomes for Boris Johnson. Here are a few notable views:

Robert MacGregor: MacGregor is confident in Johnson's ability to avoid resignation in the short term, but suggests that within 18 months, the strain of Brexit will become inevitable to disguise, leading to his departure. He sees Johnson's reign continuing until the next election and possibly beyond. Unfavorable Views: Others, like one anonymous observer, paint a more negative picture of Johnson. This commentator believes Johnson will continue to hold power due to his schemes, power-hunger, and refusal to listen to expert advice. They predict that Johnson will be remembered as the politician who led the UK to economic disaster through his Brexit policies. Resistance from Advisors: Another perspective comes from a prediction that even if Johnson attempts to resign, Dominic Cummings, his chief adviser, will not allow him to do so, given Johnson's overwhelming majority in the previous election.

Current Political Climate

Johnson's voluntary resignation is viewed through the lens of the current political climate, where his party faces little immediate challenge:

The Labour Party is expected to be preoccupied with internal conflict, while the Liberal Democrats have been humiliated and will face dissolution in the wake of the Brexit referendum. Scottish National Party (SNP) members are considered irrelevant to government business, making their opposition insubstantial. Johnson's majority in Parliament gives him a significant political advantage, making it unlikely he would voluntarily resign.

In conclusion, while Boris Johnson could face various challenges in the coming years, including a potential party leadership challenge or general election loss, the most probable outcome is that he will continue to hold his position in office. The political climate and his overwhelming majority suggest he will remain in power for the foreseeable future, with any departure more likely to occur due to external pressures rather than internal challenges.

Keywords: Boris Johnson, Brexit, voluntary resignation.